Monte Carlo analysis has become the dominant methodology for advisors to analyze retirement income planning strategies. But the way the results of Monte Carlo analysis are framed for clients can invoke different emotional responses and can affect portfolio withdrawal rate decisions. With this in mind, advisors can take advantage of a range of options to improve their use of Monte Carlo analysis, including framing the results as a “Probability of Adjustment” rather than “Probability of Success”, comparing results using historical scenarios, leveraging regime-based models, and using risk-based guardrails. Using these methods, advisors can potentially provide clients with greater peace of mind regarding their retirement income choices and better help them achieve their specific income and legacy goals.
