Kitces.com - Advancing Knowledge in Financial Planning

How Overconfidence Can Aid Entrepreneurs And The Challenges Of Advising Those Who Can’t See The Risks They’re Taking

December 9, 2020 07:04 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Client Trust & Communication

While entrepreneurs are often renowned and celebrated for their willingness to take risks – to the point that encouraging someone to “be more entrepreneurial” is an analogy for taking more risks – the reality is that research shows entrepreneurs often consider themselves otherwise. From the entrepreneur’s perspective, though, what they do doesn’t necessarily seem risky – at least to themselves – because of the confidence they have in their own abilities (i.e., a belief that they will be able to navigate whatever challenges arise). Yet if entrepreneurs aren’t actually necessarily risk-takers – just very confident, or perhaps even overconfident – the question arises: what’s the best way to counsel an entrepreneur through the risks of their financial decisions if they don’t recognize those risks in the first place?

The large scope of what it actually means to be an ‘entrepreneur’ (e.g., from a goat farmer in a tiny third-world-country village to a solo divorce attorney in a large metropolitan city), and the variability in risk tolerance measurement methodologies that are used to evaluate them, makes it difficult to definitively substantiate the idea that entrepreneurs, by nature, are high-risk seekers. As some studies suggest, entrepreneurs do not necessarily take on more risk than non-entrepreneurs; rather, they may simply have a relatively high confidence (often to the point of overconfidence) level in their own capabilities… such that they don’t perceive what they’re doing to be risky in the first place. For financial advisors, this means that for some of their clients who are business owners (and for some advisors themselves!), the challenge may not be so much about dealing with high risk-takers, but instead about how to work with clients who can be overconfident (and fail to recognize the risks they actually are taking).

In turn, there are three aspects of overconfidence: overestimation (when someone believes they are better at something they actually are), overplacement (when someone believes they are better than a targeted person or group, even though they are not), and overprecision (when someone believes their expertise or ability is based on facts or past experiences, but the facts and/or experiences have been incorrectly recalled). And while exaggeration of any of these facets of overconfidence can lead to potentially disastrous results, attenuating the overexpression of these behaviors can actually be beneficial for individuals facing difficult challenges.

Financial advisors can help overconfident clients by ensuring their clients understand their financial situation clearly and accurately. This reduces the risk of clients taking action on wrong information, and can help ensure that the client has a clear understanding of ‘normal’ parameters pertinent to their financial situation, whether that relates to a business venture or simply a personal checking account balance.

Another tool that the advisor can use to help clients recalibrate potentially skewed (i.e., overconfident) beliefs they may have about their own abilities or resources is an adaptation of Subjective Probability Interval Estimates (SPIES), a methodology developed by psychology researchers to study overconfidence. By helping the client identify all possible outcomes of a decision being considered, advisors can help the client gain a clear, objective perspective of accurate and realistic information.

Ultimately, the key point is that financial advisors working with entrepreneurial clients shouldn’t necessarily assume that they are risk-takers, and instead recognize that their confidence (or overconfidence) may instead be blinding them to their risks. Yet at the same time, advisors with overconfident clients don’t necessarily need to encourage these clients to abandon their overconfidence (which really can help them to overcome the real-world daunting challenges of entrepreneurship). Instead, presenting clients with enough knowledge to help them understand how the actual risks they may be facing can impact their situation (and how those risks may pose very real threats to them, which can arise through the actions of other, potentially less skilled/knowledgeable individuals over whom the client has no control – no matter how lucky they may feel) can be the cornerstone for creating a sound financial plan, that still takes prudent risks… but with all the appropriate safeguards in place!

#FASuccess Ep 206: (Re-)Building The Practice You Want After Your Former Firm Tries To Stop You From Breaking Away, With Drew Stotler

December 8, 2020 07:03 am 1 Comment CATEGORY: Financial Advisor Success Podcast

Welcome back to the 206th episode of Financial Advisor Success Podcast!

My guest on today's podcast is Drew Stotler. Drew is the founder of Stotler Wealth Management, a hybrid advisory firm based in the suburbs of St. Louis serving 100 middle-income clients. What's unique about Drew, though, is his path to building his own advisory firm. Having started his career in the employee advisor model at Edward Jones, deciding to break away to an independent broker-dealer only to get hit with a temporary restraining order after leaving despite having tried to do everything he could by the book, but ultimately overcoming the challenge as he can now build his advisory firm the way he always wanted to.

In this episode, we talk in-depth about how Drew built his career as a financial advisor from starting out in the Edward Jones' operations division focused on anti-money laundering reviews before requesting an internal transfer to become an advisor, how Drew built his early client base, literally knocking from door to door in local neighborhoods, what he did to build early rapport and connections while cold-knocking, and the books that gave him the inspiration to keep powering forward despite the challenging early years.

We also talk about why and how Drew ultimately decided to make a change. Why the transition was less about the difference in payouts between employee and independent channels and more about the ability to control his own marketing and be able to actually own the business he was building to someday bring his children in. The independent broker-dealers he evaluated during this path to independence and why he chose LPL. And how Drew has been rebuilding his practice while navigating Edward Jones' stringent non-solicit provisions.

And be certain to listen to the end where Drew shares what makes the advisory business such a unique and appealing career path, the pride of ownership that comes from being able to serve clients the way you think they should be served, and how the transition to independence has made it easier for him to tune out the industry pressures to grow, grow, grow and focus on what's most important to him instead.

So whether you’re interested in learning about how Drew transitioned from Edward Jones's Anti-Money Laundering department to an advisor role, how he evaluated his options around going independent, or how he built his firm after receiving a temporary restraining order, then we hope you enjoy this episode of the Financial Advisor Success podcast.

The Latest In Financial #AdvisorTech (December 2020)

December 7, 2020 07:02 am 0 Comments CATEGORY: Technology & Advisor FinTech

Welcome to the December 2020 issue of the Latest News in Financial #AdvisorTech – where we look at the big news, announcements, and underlying trends and developments that are emerging in the world of technology solutions for financial advisors!

This month's edition kicks off with the big news that Blackrock is making a “billion-dollar bet” on the future of Direct Indexing, acquiring #2 player, Aperio, just weeks after Morgan Stanley acquired #1 Direct Indexing provider, Parametric… which given Blackrock’s sheer mass and distribution capabilities, could quickly turn 2021 into the year that Direct Indexing really hits the map with financial advisors, either for its inherent tax advantages (of being able to tax-loss-harvest the individual stocks in the index, rather than just the index fund itself) or the potential to morph into a form of “customized indexing” where advisors adapt “index” funds for each client based on anything from factor bets (e.g., overweighting small-cap and value) or ESG preferences (e.g., underweighting tobacco and overweighting renewable energy). Though from Blackrock’s perspective, it’s still not clear whether it really sees Direct Indexing as the great disruptor of ETFs… or simply wants to hedge against the risk that it might be (in light of its own multi-trillion-dollar iShares ETF business).

From there, the latest highlights also feature a number of other interesting advisor technology announcements, including:

Fidelity launches a new model marketplace, dubbed FMAX, in what appears to be an attempt to convert the custody business into an upfront basis point charge (at least for advisors who use third-party managers?)
Addepar raises a $117M Series E round as it expands into the (alternatives) Marketplace business as well
CAIS raises $50M for its own alternatives Marketplace solution
Oranj announces that it is (abruptly) shutting down as its own Model Marketplace adoption fails to gain traction (even when its core software was free!?)

Read the analysis about these announcements in this month's column, and a discussion of more trends in advisor technology, including former LPL CEO Mark Casady’s launch of Lefteris (the first SPAC specifically targeting Advisor FinTech companies for a potential IPO?), Commonwealth launches a new “Connect” platform to facilitate virtual networking for its advisor community, Bill.com launches a new bill-paying solution for wealth management firms to offer concierge bill-payments for their own clients, and ForwardLane launches a new “personalization at scale” Next Best Action solution for RIAs (but do advice-centric RIAs with reasonable client/professional ratios actually need such solutions in the first place?).

And be certain to read to the end, where we have provided an update to our popular “Financial AdvisorTech Solutions Map” as well!

I hope you're continuing to find this column on financial advisor technology to be helpful! Please share your comments at the end and let me know what you think!

*And for #AdvisorTech companies who want to submit their tech announcements for consideration in future issues, please submit to [email protected]!

Weekend Reading for Financial Planners (Dec 5-6)

December 4, 2020 02:59 pm 6 Comments CATEGORY: Weekend Reading

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the industry news that NASAA has approved a new Model Rule that would, for the first time, impose an annual Continuing Education requirement for advisors at RIAs (regardless of whether they have a professional designation)... or at least, at the state-based RIAs that are subject to the individual states that may adopt the NASAA Model Rule in the coming years?

Also in the news this week is the news that the CFP Board has hired a 20-year veteran of the SEC's Enforcement leadership to become its new Managing Director of Enforcement as the organization signals a growing focus on actually enforcing its new fiduciary standards of conduct, and a new consumer research study finding that investors are more comfortable with human advisors over robo-advisors and are (slightly) more likely to follow their advice... but were also more likely to be dissatisfied in the recent pandemic market volatility earlier this year (in particular, for all those advisors who advised their clients to "do nothing" and simply stay the course!).

From there, we have several articles on practice management and growth, including tips on the next positions to hire for as an advisory firm grows (from Client Service to Operations, Investments to Compliance), the importance of visioning exercises as an advisory firm leader to truly envision the future growth of the firm (and the organizational chart it would take to get there), and a look at how advisory firms are increasingly rethinking their approach to compensation and benefits (in particular, the ongoing shift from revenue-based compensation to salary-plus-incentives instead).

We've also included some articles on employee performance reviews (as that time of year queues up!), including one strategic approach on how to run the annual employee review process, another highlighting the importance of benchmarking employees not against one another but their own past selves (to measure personal improvement over time, not competitiveness against others in the workplace), and a look at how the 'emotional culture' of an organization can help drive employee success and retention.

We wrap up with three interesting articles, all around the theme of how financial advisors manage their own money: the first is a recap of the recent new book by Josh Brown and Brian Portnoy aptly titled "How I Invest My Money: Financial Experts Reveal How They Save, Spend, and Invest"; the second is the personal story of the Chief Investment Officer of a multi-billion-dollar RIA about how he invests his own money; and the last is an interesting look at how there's often a gap between what financial advisors say their clients should do, and what they do themselves... and the debate about whether that is a sign of advisor hypocrisy, a recognition of how hard it is to follow advice (even our own, as we're human beings too), or simply an acknowledgment of how varied our goals are and the paths that we take (which is why financial planning is so important in the first place)?

Enjoy the 'light' reading!

Kitces & Carl Ep 48: Why Goals-Based Planning Doesn’t Work And The Possibilities-Based Planning Alternative

December 3, 2020 07:03 am 2 Comments CATEGORY: Kitces & Carl Podcast

Decades ago, when the financial advice industry was focused primarily on the sale of investment products and insurance, the standard planning approach was to conduct a gap analysis to highlight the client’s needs… so that the advisor could implement whatever available products they had to address those needs (and earn a commission in the process). More recently, financial planning has shifted away from a needs-based approach, and towards a more aspirational “goals-based” approach where clients commit to pursuing advisor-recommended strategies to achieve those goals. Yet the challenge of goals-based investing is that it presumes clients know what their goals are, and can effectively articulate them… which in practice isn’t always the case. In part because the compounding math of wealth accumulation itself isn’t natural for most, and it’s difficult to set goals if you don’t even know what the compounding of saving and investing might make possible in the first place!

In our 48th episode of Kitces & Carl, Michael Kitces and client communication expert Carl Richards discuss why goals-based financial planning puts the proverbial cart before the horse, the importance of exploring the possibilities first, strategies to dig deeper with clients to create frameworks from which realistic and meaningful goals can be developed, and why iterative planning allows advisors to develop long-term relationships with clients, where the focus isn’t on The Plan, per se, but rather on the process of planning and adapting to what else may become possible over time.

As a starting point, it’s important to understand that humans in general aren’t really wired to envision a future that is substantially different from what we experience today. It’s little wonder, then, that clients, when asked about their “goals”, often don’t have very good answers... and may even sometimes wildly unrealistic expectations (which, in turn, forces the advisor to become the “bearer of bad news”). Which means that the first (and perhaps most underrated) thing that an advisor should do is to help clients understand the myriad of possibilities ahead of them, explore a range of scenarios, and understand the inevitable trade-offs and choices that they will have to make along the way.

From that “possibilities-based planning” foundation, advisors can focus on asking good questions that lead to meaningful conversations around helping clients discover those things that are most important to them, identify their desired future state, and then build a framework upon which they can define (and start moving towards) their goals. In turn, defining those goals with a possibilities-based discovery approach creates room to reassess those goals and to shift over time… while allowing the underlying framework to remain in place.

Ultimately, while it’s not necessary to completely discard the notion of goals-based planning, the key is to examine what the various possibilities are to begin with, before even thinking about asking clients what their goals might be. By thinking more along the lines of possibilities-based planning, advisors can help clients determine what are realistic goals to set in the first place and determine the most efficient recommendations that will allow clients to focus on what’s most important to them and get them to their desired future state.

Helping Clients Get Unstuck And Follow Through By Understanding The Six Stages Of Change

December 2, 2020 07:01 am 1 Comment CATEGORY: Client Trust & Communication

One of the most frustrating parts of providing financial planning advice is that not all clients follow through on the advice that is clearly ‘good’ for them. Of course, the reality is that as human beings, we often don’t take the advice proffered by others. But when a prospective client comes to the financial planner for advice, there is a reasonable expectation that they’re ready to act on the advice they receive! Except, as it turns out, research suggests that often the fact that we reach out to an advice-provider is not necessarily a reflection of our readiness to take the advice; instead, it is just one of many steps in a client’s progress through the stages of change from inaction and complacency to actually taking action to change their situation for the better! And by understanding the various stages of change, we can better understand the reasons why clients get stuck in the first place and engage the client in specific processes that help them move forward and make progress in implementing their financial plans.

Interestingly, of the six stages of change identified by psychologist James Proschaka and his team of researchers, only half of the stages actually involve any action steps towards implementing the change. The first three stages of change, where many clients tend to get stuck in following through on their financial plan, don’t involve any action at all. Instead, these ‘non-action’ stages involve self-reflection and emotional preparation to proceed with the change being considered, from Pre-Contemplation (where clients don’t even realize there’s a problem to contemplate fixing) to Contemplation (when they understand that a change is indeed necessary, and acknowledge that there is something they can do about it… but aren’t ready to do anything about it yet), to the third and last non-action stage, Preparation (where we begin to think about what needs to happen and will make plans to actually implement a change). Only at that point can the individual move on to the ‘action’ stages, which include taking action and maintaining the new behavior required to sustain the change.

Advisors can ask clients who seem to be having trouble taking action on their plans a set of four specific questions to understand where in the process they may be stuck: 1) whether the client can identify what they want to change; 2) if they know what they need to do to change; 3) if they believe they have the capacity to make the change, and; 4) if they are committed to begin taking action. Alternatively, advisors can use ‘scaling’ questions to determine the degree of commitment and/or interest to the change being considered and use their clients' responses as a way to adjust courses of action accordingly.

Furthermore, the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of Change is a framework that identifies ten processes that can be used as tools to help clients move through the various stages of change. These processes are either experiential (dealing with experiences through thought and emotion and more often associated with addressing non-action stages) and include steps that help clients through the Pre-Contemplation stage (Consciousness-Raising, Environmental Reevaluation, and Dramatic Relief) or a mix of other stages (Self-Reevaluation, Social Liberation), or behavioral (involving the client actively taking steps to set the change in motion) and include Self-Liberation, Helping Relationships, Reinforcement Management, Counter Conditioning, and Stimulus Control.

One of the most important considerations when helping clients implement change is the concept of self-efficacy, which is an individual’s sense of their ability to take action in response to a situation. Ideally, advisors will use TTM tools to help clients increase their self-efficacy, whether it be through providing the client with ample opportunity to reflect on the meaning of the change that needs to be made, or simply supporting their efforts (and not necessarily pushing them to action, which can be counterproductive with a client not yet ready to take action).

Ultimately, the key point is that there are processes that advisors can use to help their clients move through the various stages of change, which can make it easier for them to work with those clients who may be stuck or resistant to take action. It is also important to understand that change involves behavioral ‘non-action’ stages and that clients may still be making significant progress even though nothing seems to be happening. By recognizing where clients are in the change process, advisors can decide how to provide the right kind of support to their clients to help them tackle their specific blocking points, and move along in getting on track with their financial plans!