The ongoing decline of defined benefit plans and pensions, and the associated rise of defined contribution plans – in the US and around the globe – is leading to a growing body of research around how best to “de-cumulate” a lump sum of assets after they have been accumulated in the first place.
To address the challenge, a wide range of strategies have emerged, some built around a “safety-first” framework of guaranteeing a base of income (e.g., with annuitization or a pension) and building on top of that, while others have focused on a more “probability-based” portfolio-centric approach that aims to spend down the invested assets while maximizing the probability of success along the way.
Yet the reality is that portfolio-based strategies built around a “conservative enough” safe withdrawal rate effectively are a safety-first approach, while safety-based strategies using annuitization or pensions can still have at least some risk (as evidenced by the history of insurance/annuity company failures, and the growing shortfall of the PBGC in backing failed pensions).
Perhaps instead a better way to recognize the range of retirement income strategies is based on whether retirees trust in insurance and annuity guarantees and choose to transfer the risk, or instead “trust” in markets and the equity risk premium in the long run and choose to retain the risk while seeking appropriate strategies to reduce or avoid the danger of a shortfall along the way!
