As financial planning firms grow more efficient, especially with the use of technology, it becomes possible for planners to manage an increasingly large number of clients. The only limitation, it would seem, is the time it takes to service them. However, research in psychology and anthropology suggests that there may be another limit to the maximum number of clients - the physiological limit of our brain's neocortex that constrains the number of social relationships that can be actively maintained. This threshold - called "Dunbar's number" - is estimated to be about 150 people on average, and corresponds not just to the average size of many ancient tribes and villages, but also the military unit size of the Roman army, and even the average number of Facebook friends or engaged Twitter followers! The implication of the research is that even as firms continue to become more efficient, there's still a physiological brain-based limit to how many clients we'll ever be able to manage, which allowing for some personal relationships as well may never be much higher than 75-125 for any planner regardless of the new tools and technologies we create in the future!Read More...
Fixing The Weakest Links In Your Referral Growth Strategy
Advisor surveys continue to show that the #1 marketing strategy for most firms is to grow through referrals. Unfortunately, though, most firms still get modest results at best, leading them to double down on their referral efforts by asking clients for referrals even more.
A recently released book by marketing consultant Stephen Wershing, however, suggests that the optimal path to success is actually to go the opposite direction - "Stop Asking For Referrals" and instead focus on creating the environment that makes it easier for clients to refer, by understanding what it is that drives clients to refer in the first place. The end result is a practice that has a well identified target market and a clear niche, so that clients truly understand who is and is not an appropriate person to refer, and when someone is referred what they find is compelling enough to make them want to follow through for an initial meeting.
Notably, recent research by Julie Littlechild has shown that overall, 91% of clients are willing to refer, and 29% of clients actually do refer - given that most firms are not growing at 29%+ organic growth rates, though, suggests that there is a lot of room for improvement by applying Wershing's recommendations to fix the weakest links in your own referral growth strategy!Read More...
Weekend Reading for Financial Planners (Oct 6-7)
Enjoy the current installment of "weekend reading for financial planners" - this week's edition starts off with a recap of the recent FPA Experience national conference, along with a discussion of the latest research from Cerulli suggesting that the declining market share of wirehouses may actually be accelerating even as we become more distanced from the financial crisis, and a nice overview of the current state of fiduciary rulemaking (or lack thereof) from the SEC. From there, we look at Financial Planning magazine's recent Influencer Awards recognition, a discussion of the FA Insight "Growth by Design" study of how firms are strategically viewing and managing growth, and a wide-reaching interview on safe withdrawal rates from retirement researchers Bill Bengen, Jon Guyton, and Wade Pfau. There are also a few investment articles, including the latest change from Vanguard to further drive down the expenses of ETFs, a recap on the current state and future of actively managed ETFs, and a striking article on asset allocation glidepaths suggesting that rising equity exposure in the years before retirement may actually be more effective than declining equity exposure! We wrap up with a brief article (and associated video) showing how to hide the new "endorsements" feature of LinkedIn (which some have suggested may be a violation of the regulations barring client testimonials), and a profile of a financial advisory firm making an interesting splash in social media with a controversial political video that has generated a whopping 1,000,000 views and 100,000 Facebook fans. Enjoy the reading!
Does The DALBAR Study Grossly Overstate The Behavior Gap? (Guest Post)
It is an accepted belief that retail investors, swayed by a barrage of financial news and information, and the wiring in their own brains, tend to systematically buy at market peaks and sell at market lows, resulting in returns that are far lower than what could have been achieved by simply buying and holding.
This so-called "behavior gap" has been quantified most famously over the years by DALBAR, which produces and annually updates a study of the difference between investor (dollar-weighted) returns and index (time-weighted) returns, and currently shows that investors have cost themselves more than 4% per year in returns for the past two decades.
Yet the reality is that DALBAR's methodology confounds the impact of investor behavior, and the simple consequences of return sequences; it's entirely possible that some or all of the low DALBAR investor returns are simply due to the fact that markets rose for the first half of their time sample (the 1990s) and were flat for the second half (the 2000s).
And in fact, that appears to be the case. Once DALBAR updated their projections to compare investor returns to a passive investor who simply invested systematically over the entire time period, the result surprisingly shows that retail investors in the aggregated actually outperformed systematic dollar cost averaging for the past 20 years!Read More...
The Pervasive Effect Of Low Interest Rates On Financial Planning
The ongoing low interest rate environment in the US has created many challenges in recent years, as the struggle to find yield and return drives planners and investors away from bonds and towards other options for higher returns, from equities to so-called "alternative" asset classes - in turn driving up those prices and reducing dividend yields and prospective future appreciation. Nonetheless, many returns on alternatives are still appealing given an alternative of near-zero interest rates on fixed income! Yet the reality is that low interest rates, as they continue to persist, are beginning to have other effects beyond just the impact to investors. Insurance companies have been forced to raise prices on some types of insurance, or leave the marketplace entirely, as the returns are simply too low to manage risk and generate a reasonable profit. Pension plans continue a slow grind of underperforming their long-term actuarial assumptions, creating a larger and larger deficit that must ultimately be resolved as well. And while many planners have been trying to focus their clients on the risks of what happens to bonds if rates rise, recent research suggests that in fact the greatest surprise of the coming decade could be that rates continue to remain low as the US economy deals with its massive public and private debt levels - which in turn means many of these low interest rate challenges could still be in the early phase!Read More...
Weekend Reading for Financial Planners (Sep 29-30)
Enjoy the current installment of "weekend reading for financial planners" - this week's edition starts off with a response from the CFP Board to the recent challenge about whether their fiduciary standard is "a joke" (not surprisingly, the CFP Board suggests that its standard is no joke), along with an article from the Advisor One blogs by Knut Rostad of the Institute for the Fiduciary Standard suggesting that HighTower Advisors is overstating their lack of conflicts of interest to the detriment of advancing the standard, and another article by Dan Moisand that suggests better regulation of financial planning will ultimately be a necessary step to be fully recognized as a profession. From there, we look at some interesting stats suggesting the fiduciary RIA world is grabbing market share of 401(k) plans just as it has been grabbing market share of retail investment advice, and an article about a planning firm that focuses on career coaching and compensation advice as a core deliverable to clients. There are also a number of technical articles, including a discussion of the emerging investment concept of "risk parity" and why it matters, a look at where and how tactical asset allocation will and won't work, the apparent underutilization of Section 529 college savings plans by financial planners, an analysis of when tax deferral does and does not make sense. and two deep estate planning articles (one focused on estate tax strategies before the end of the year, and the other on recent legal and tax developments over the past year). We wrap up with a lighter article about the importance of body language and what you may be unwittingly communicating in meetings, along with some advice to help ensure you're in the right state of mind heading into a (client) meeting (because if you're not, your body language is going to show it!). Enjoy the reading!
Do New Financial Planners Focus Too Much On A Partnership Career Track?
For much of financial planning's history, the only way to be a financial planner was to build your own financial planning business, either alone or with a partner or few. As the industry matures, though, it is increasingly common for financial planners to begin their careers not by starting a firm from scratch, but by joining an existing one, with the ultimate goal of "having your name on the door" as a partner. Yet it's not clear if many newer planners really want the risks and responsibilities of being a partner, or are just trying to find a career track that leads to a professional income - after all, in firms where the only options are administrative staff or professional partner, it appears that partnership is the only path to a higher earning potential.
The model emerging at larger firms, though, is to more clearly delineate between compensation paid for working in the business, and the risks and benefits of ownership for working on the business as a partner. Ultimately, the reality may be that only a few newer planners really have the inclination to be a partner - for the rest, the real key is to craft a career track that will leave planners not as partners at all, but simply well compensated for a job well done!
CFP Board Under Kevin Keller: Not Your Father’s CFP Board Anymore
Five years ago, Kevin Keller became the CEO of the CFP Board, and at a unique and challenging time for the organization. The CFP Board had just announced its decision to relocate to Washington DC, which was likely to turn over most of the staff (at least, those who were left, as prior CEO Sarah Teslik had just slashed the headcount of the organization by nearly 40% in the preceding few years). Beyond staffing issues, the organization seemed to be in turmoil, with one leadership blunder after another, and Keller himself was entering as the 7th permanent or interim CEO to fill the role with the CFP Board in as many years.
Given that Keller was essentially an "outsider" at the time - experienced in leadership at another organization, but with no particular background or connection to the financial planning world - it was not clear how would he (re-)shape the CFP Board as he took over, with the rare opportunity, and danger, of re-staffing the entire organization from the ground up. Would it be the fresh start the CFP Board needed, or would the outsider unfamiliar with the challenges of the industry and the organization blunder?
Looking back over the past 5 years of the CFP Board, the conclusion seems clear now - although the CFP Board's central role in the financial planning profession continues to make its decisions controversial from time to time, the reality is that the organization under Keller's leadership appears to be entirely reinvented, and in a very positive direction. Although there are definitely some challenges that remain, this isn't your father's CFP Board anymore.
Weekend Reading for Financial Planners (Sep 22-23)
Enjoy the current installment of "weekend reading for financial planners" - this week's edition starts off with a look at how fiduciary rulemaking progress has slowed so much that any real change may now be years away at best, a discussion of how (despite lack of progress on fiduciary minimum standards) the future of advice may include a small number of mega-firms that are really building a focused, holistic and client-centric approach to advice, and a somewhat disturbing article suggesting that financial planners are becoming a target for cybercrooks that are trying to steal client money by sending advisors fake email transfer requests. From there, we have a few interesting retirement articles, including an interview with Moshe Milevsky, a discussion from Wade Pfau looking at the immediate-annuity-versus-systematic-withdrawal debate, and an analysis of median income for households over the past several decades that shows how retirees are actually faring the best of any age group. We also look at an interesting Journal of Financial Planning article about how to better evaluate cash value life insurance illustrations, a discussion whether it really pays to go to cash waiting for interest rates to rise, and a look from Morningstar at how as more and more people adopt indexing approaches new opportunities may be emerging for active managers. We wrap up with two lighter articles, one with tips on how to get more productivity time back with some good email management tips, and an intriguing discussion of how, in light of the fact that even people who now do what they love often found that path only after a period of time and some difficult early years, "follow your passion" may be bad career advice for Generation Y and that instead we need to paint a more nuanced picture of career paths that acknowledge the (inevitably?) difficult early years. Enjoy the reading!
What Makes Something An (Alternative) Asset Class, Anyway?
The most typical definition of an asset class is a group of securities that have similar risk/return characteristics, and behave similarly in the marketplace. Thus, for instance, stocks, bonds, and cash represent the three most common asset classes, as each have different risk/return characteristics and they behave very differently in response to various economic and market events.
One of the most common ways to attempt to determine whether an investment represents a unique asset class is to examine its correlation with other investments. After all, two investments that have different risk/return characteristics and behave differently in response to market events would likely show little similarity in returns over time, thereby exhibiting a low correlation. In turn, given how Modern Portfolio Theory demonstrates that investments with a low correlation to the rest of the portfolio can lower the overall volatility of the portfolio - even if the underlying investment itself is volatile on its own - advisors have increasingly sought out low correlation "alternative" asset classes and investments to manage risk through diversification.
The caveat, however, is that in an increasingly complex financial world, having a low correlation alone can actually be a remarkably poor and misleading indicator of what constitutes an (alternative) asset class.
